Seminar GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne "Agricultural shocks..."

Seminar GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne "Agricultural shocks..."

Seminar GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne "Agricultural shocks..."
▶️ Thursday, June 23, 10h45-12h00
▶️ Speaker : Isabelle Chort
▶️ Title : Agricultural shocks, coping policies and deforestation : Evidence from the...

Seminar GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne "Agricultural shocks..."

▶️ Thursday, June 23, 10h45-12h00
▶️ Speaker : Isabelle Chort
▶️ Title : Agricultural shocks, coping policies and deforestation : Evidence from the coffee rust epidemic in Mexico (with Berk Öktem)
▶️ Online : https://ujmstetienne.webex.com/m/18b69061-e9bb-4147-9a9b-08ed10b41b63


▶️ Abstract : 
🔹 Deforestation in the tropics is a major issue that interacts with global environmental changes, and the mediating role of negative agricultural shocks is ambiguous. 
🔹 We investigate the impact of the latest massive outbreak of coffee leaf rust (CLR) in Central America on deforestation in Mexico. 
🔹 CLR is  a fungal disease that negatively affects coffee yields. We exploit the gradual and random diffusion of the epidemic across coffee-growing municipalities and estimate a difference-in-difference model. 
🔹 We find that deforestation increased by 32% in CLR-affected municipalities but we find no increase in agricultural land. 
🔹 Effects are driven by  municipalities with low coffee yields, characterizing shade coffee systems, and states where rustic coffee systems were predominant. 
🔹 These results suggest that deforestation occurred within coffee cultivation areas and point out the concurrent role of government subsidies and incentives through the PROCAFE program, launched in 2014, that promoted the replacement of traditional coffee trees by CLR-resistant hybrids.
🔹 We study the dynamic effects of CLR and exploit the delayed launch of PROCAFE  to try to disentangle the impact of the epidemic from that of the policy response. 
🔹 Our results emphasize the vulnerability of agroforestry systems to exogenous shocks and suggest that PROCAFE, as a short-term response to CLR, contributed to increase deforestation and to accelerate the transition of Mexican traditional coffee landscapes to monoculture.

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